Most people think of history as a series of stories—tales of one army unexpectedly defeating another, or a politician making a memorable speech, or an upstart overthrowing a sitting monarch.
Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut sees things rather differently. Formally trained as a ecologist, he sees history as a series of equations. Specifically, he wants to bring the types of mathematical models used in fields such as wildlife ecology to explain population trends in a different species: humans.
In a paper published with colleagues today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, he presents a mathematical model (shown on the left of the video above) that correlates well with historical data (shown on the right) on the development and spread of large-scale, complex societies (represented as red territories on the green area studied). The simulation runs from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.—so it encompasses the growth of societies like Mesopotamia, ancient Egypt and the like—and replicates historical trends with 65 percent accuracy.
This might not sound like a perfect accounting of human history, but that’s not really the goal. Turchin simply wants to apply mathematical analysis to the field of history so that researchers can determine which factors are most influential in affecting the spread of human states and populations, just as ecologists have done when analyzing wildlife population dynamics. Essentially, he wants to answer a simple question: Why did complex societies develop and spread in some areas but not others?
In this study, Turchin’s team found that conflict between societies and the development of military technology as a result of war were the most important elements that predicted which states would develop and expand over the map—with those factors taken away, the model deteriorated, describing actual history with only 16 percent accuracy.
Turchin began thinking about applying math to history in general about 15 years ago. “I always enjoyed history, but I realized then that it was the last major discipline which was not mathematized,” he explains. “But mathematical approaches—modeling, statistics, etc.—are an inherent part of any real science.”
In bringing these sorts of tools into the arena of world history and developing a mathematical model, his team was inspired by a theory called cultural multilevel selection, which predicts that competition between different groups is the main driver of the evolution of large-scale, complex societies. To build that into the model, they divided all of Africa and Eurasia into gridded squares which were each categorized by a few environmental variables (the type of habitat, elevation, and whether it had agriculture in 1500 B.C.E.). They then “seeded” military technology in squares adjacent to the grasslands of central Asia, because the domestication of horses—the dominant military technology of the age—likely arose there initially.
I am using the term Reference, not laws, for reference is more by way of recommendation in nature while Law implies punishment .
The reference points may include any or all of the following criteria.
Day to-day activities of Life like brushing the teeth bathing,eating, sleeping, working, marriage, parenting and Death.
and a combination of all the above.
In the absence of any frame of reference, the individual is rudderless and has a crisis of identity.
You take away the identity of Nation from an individual, he becomes an immigrant , not knowing where he belongs to for he is an alien to boht the countries.
Similarly if you peel of all references to a group, you have an Identity crisis.
People without strong bonding with communities become recluses, start hanging out in Facebook,Google Plus hangouts with people of whom they know nothing, except what they inform you of what you would like to hear.
The chances of building a strong personal community bonding are slim.
In most of these artificially created communities,driven mostly by curiosity and a desire to share things which they can not share with whom they know.
And herein lies the danger.
Mostly people misuse it and exploit your weaknesses.
Hinduism had tried, organizing groups under the principles mentioned above.
They found that Money as the reference point is not stable as the yard stick of Money changes and money is not a permanent fixture with any one as fortune changes.
You can observe how money as reference point has wreaked havoc with individual’s Lifestyle when they lose money,stranded by people who evaluate them on the basis of Money alone.
Talk to any one who lost a lucrative Job in IT industry, you would know what I am talking about.
Money can not be the sole criterion
Power, this also changes swiftly with the same disastrous results as with money.
In both the cases of Money and Power, these reference points create more anti social , some in authority.
Mere geographical identity will not do as the location is dictated by the economic condition.
So this can not be deciding factor.
At best it can be a secondary denominator’ like the MythiliBrahmins, Vadama Brahmins of the Brahmin Community which indicate their location,but they remain in the main classification , Brahmins,
If you take Profession,it can also remain as a secondary indicator as it is subject to change.
Let us take the case of Brahmins.
Their profession is to Study the Vedas, Teach the Vedas,Perform Yagnyas, have the Yagnyas performed,Seek alms for Food and pay for the welfare of the Society and the Society took care of all their needs,
Both are missing to-day.
There is no Brahmin I know of is a Brahmin by this definition, me included,
All of us, Brahmins have become Vaisyas in Business, Kshtriyas in Politics, Army and in many cases Sudras by performing duties as ordered by the others-by the performance of Duties.
The Society ceased supporting Brahmins as they did for we long ceased to be Brahmins.
But which happened first, Our ceasing to Brahmins or the Society stooped supporting us and which triggered this chain, I do not know, nor there is information on this,
Kanchi Maha Periyavar is of the Opinion is that it is because of Brahmins ceasing to be Brahmins, the Society stopped respecting them.
I totally agree with him.
Now I am digressing.
Hinduism found that none of the criteria mentioned individually here would help either the Individual or the Society in the long run.
They tried a combination of all these factors and found that even if all of them are clubbed together as a Frame of reference, it would not do.
So they went to the root of the problem, Behavior.
Behavior starts from Birth, in the form of dispositions.