200,000 Cancers Likely from Fukushima Explosion.Video/Official Report on Reactor.

Follow the Link for official report on Japan Nuclear Accident.

© Copyright 2010, Fairewinds Associates, Inc, All Rights Reserved


The Health Outcome of the Fukushima Catastrophe Initial Analysis from Risk Model of the European Committee on Radiation Risk ECRR By: Chris Busby.

Given that the ICRP predicted excess cancers will probably appear in the next10 years, they will not be measurable above the normal rate unless they are rarecancers. Examples are leukaemia in children or thyroid cancer.The ECRR absolute risk method cannot be formally used unless we know theindividual radionuclide exposures. However it can be used if we approximate that 1/3of the dose is internal and that 1/3 of the internal dose carries a weighting of 300(which was the overall weighting factor obtained form the weapons test falloutspectrum of radionuclides epidemiology). Then the annual internal dose is 5.6mSvand 1/3 of this is 1.9mSv which we weight at 300. The total ECRR dose is thus575mSvECRR. The collective dose is then 3,338,900 x 575 x 10
to give 1,919,867person Sieverts and a lifetime (50 year) cancer yield of 191,986 extra cancersassuming the ECRR risk factor of 0.1 per Sievert ECRR. Given the different timeframes, these numbers obtained from the Tondel et al 2004 regression and the ECRRabsolute model based on the atmospheric test cancer yields in Wales and England arein reasonable agreement.The three predictions are given in Table 5
Table 5
. The predicted cancer increases in the 100km zone near the Fukushima site
Model Cancer yield Note, assumptions
ICRP 2838 In 50 years, based on collective doses atexposure of 2
Sv/h for one yearECRR Tondel 103,329 In ten years following the catastrophe, based onsurface contamination onlyECRR absolute 191,986 In 50 years, based on collective doses atexposure of 2
Sv/h for one year; probably halfof these expressed in the first ten years.
Cancer excess in 200km annulus population
The methods employed above may be extended to the 200km annulus if thecontamination levels are known. Presently no data is available of contamination inthese areas although dose rates are available. NOAA Computer modelling carried outby us and published on the internet (www.llrc.org) and elsewhere suggest that theplumes from the catastrophe have travelled south over the highly populated areasshown in Fig4. Dose rates have been published for these areas and from these doserates it can be assumed that significant exposures have occurred. From Table 4 andFig 3 we can assume that the exposures are of the order of 1
Sv/h with associatedcontamination levels. Therefore the methods employed for the 100km area may beextended to the 200km area. The population is, however much greater at 7,874,600.The results


(HigginsBlog) – Despite countless reassurances that no harmful levels of radiation from the Japan nuclear fallout would hit the US from the EPA, the University of Berkley in California is now reporting that rainwater in San Francisco water has now been detected at levels 18,100%  above federal drinking water standards.

Again, with just about all other news of the radiation hitting the US, the news is once again reported to the public over a week after it was first detected.

For background information see:



Check Radiation Poisoning.

Phase Symptom Exposure (Sv)
1–2Sv 2–6Sv 6–8Sv 8–30Sv >30Sv
Immediate Nausea and vomiting 5–50% 50–100% 75–100% 90–100% 100%
Time of onset 2–6h 1–2h 10–60m <10m immediate
Duration >24h 24–48h <48h <48h 48h–death
Diarrhea None Slight (10%) Heavy (10%) Heavy (90%) Heavy (100%)
Time of onset 3–8h 1–2h >1h <30m
Headache Slight Mild (50%) Moderate (80%) Severe (80–90%) Severe (100%)
Time of onset 4–24h 3–4h 1–2h <1h
Fever Slight–None Moderate (50%) High (100%) Severe (100%) Severe (100%)
Time of onset 1–3h >1h >1h >30m
CNS function No impairment Cognitive impairment 6–20 h Cognitive impairment <20 h Rapid incapacitation Seizures,TremorAtaxia
Latent Period 28–31 days 7–28 days >7 days none none
Overt illness MildLeukopenia;
Severe leukopenia;
High fever;
Dizziness and disorientationHypotension;
Electrolyte disturbance
Vomiting; Severe diarrhea;
High fever;
Electrolyte disturbance;
Mortality without medical care 0–5% 5–100% 95–100% 100% 100%
Mortality with medical care 0–5% 5–50% 50–100% 100% 100%


Japanese authorities are trying to prevent total meltdown at three nuclear reactors that were damaged in Friday’s tsunami. Engineers are flooding the reactors to cool them down, then venting the radioactive steam to prevent a dangerous build-up in pressure. Thousands have been evacuated, and helicopters have detected radioactive particles 60 miles from the reactors. How can the evacuees tell if they’ve been exposed to dangerous levels of radiation?

With a blood test. Nuclear plant workers, radiologists, and rescue workers can wear badges or special rings that tell them how much radiation is in their environment. Post hoc measurement is tougher, though. Public health workers may pass a device over the patient’s clothing. The air enters an oxygen- or argon-filled chamber, and the machine detects reactions between the gas and radioactive particles. Another option is to take a swab of the patient’s nose and mouth and perform a similar experiment. If either of these methods uncover radiation exposure, doctors then draw blood. Absorption of more than 500 millisieverts of radiation can depress white blood cell levels.

At this time, it doesn’t look like anyone in Japan has taken in this much radiation. The highest reported absorption so far is just 106 msv. To put that into perspective, workers at the Chernobyl plant absorbed more than 5,000 msv, and those were the survivors. Even 500 msv is fairly benign. White blood cell counts typically rebound within a couple of days, and the patient’s increased lifetime risk of cancer is barely worth mentioning. The average American has a one-in-two chance of developing some form of cancer. One-time exposure to 500 msv raises those odds to about one-in-1.9999.

On the off chance that an unfortunate nuclear plant worker shows signs of significant radiation exposure, treatment would depend on the type of radioactive particle involved. Radioactive cesium can be treated with a chelating agent, a chemical that binds to the particle and ushers it out of the body via urine. Those who inhale a dose of radioactive iodine aren’t as lucky. While it can be treated prophylactically with potassium iodide tablets, there’s no effective remedy after the exposure. The victim has to wait for his body to process the contaminant.



Radiation Exposure Monitoring (REM) facilitates the collection and distribution of information about estimated patient radiation exposure resulting from imaging procedures.


Radiation poisoningradiation sickness or a creeping dose, is a form of damage to organ tissue caused by excessive exposure to ionizing radiation. The term is generally used to refer toacute problems caused by a large dosage of radiation in a short period, though this also has occurred with long term exposure. The clinical name for radiation sickness is acute radiation syndrome (ARS) as described by the CDC.[1][2][3]chronic radiation syndrome does exist but is very uncommon; this has been observed among workers in early radium source production sites and in the early days of the Soviet nuclear program. A short exposure can result in acute radiation syndrome; chronic radiation syndrome requires a prolonged high level of exposure.

Radiation exposure can also increase the probability of developing some other diseases, mainlycancertumours, and genetic damage. These are referred to as the stochastic effects of radiation, and are not included in the term radiation sickness.

The use of radionuclides in science and industry is strictly regulated in most countries. In the event of an accidental or deliberate release of radioactive material, either evacuation or sheltering in place are the recommended measures. For information on the effects of lower doses of radiation, see the article on radiation orders of magnitude.

Exposure levels

gray (Gy) is a unit of radiation dose absorbed by matter. To gauge biological effects the dose is multiplied by a ‘quality factor’ which is dependent on the type of ionising radiation. Such measurement of biological effect is called “dose equivalent” and is measured in sievert (Sv). For electron and photon radiation (e.g. gamma), 1 Gy = 1 Sv.

The corresponding non-SI units are the rad (radiation absorbed dose; 1 rad = 0.01 Gy), and rem (roentgen equivalent mammal/man;[8]1 rem=0.01 Sv).

Annual limit on intake (ALI) is the derived limit for the amount of radioactive material taken into the body of an adult worker by inhalation or ingestion in a year. ALI is the intake of a given radionuclide in a year that would result in:

  • a committed effective dose equivalent of 0.05 Sv (5 rems) for a “reference human body”, or
  • a committed dose equivalent of 0.5 Sv (50 rems) to any individual organ or tissue,

whatever dose is the smaller.[9

Signs and symptoms

Radiation sickness is generally associated with acute (a single large) exposure.[4][5] Nausea and vomiting are usually the main symptoms.[5]The amount of time between exposure to radiation and the onset of the initial symptoms may be an indicator of how much radiation was absorbed,[5] as symptoms appear sooner with higher doses of exposure.[6] The symptoms of radiation sickness become more serious (and the chance of survival decreases) as the dosage of radiation increases. A few symptom-free days may pass between the appearance of the initial symptoms and the onset of symptoms of more severe illness associated with higher doses of radiation. Nausea and vomiting generally occur within 24–48 hours after exposure to mild (1–2 Sv) doses of radiation. Radiation damage to the intestinal tract lining will cause nausea, bloody vomiting and diarrhea. This occurs when the victim’s exposure is 200 rems (1 Sv = 100 rems) or more. The radiation will begin to destroy the cells in the body that divide rapidly, including blood, GI tract, reproductive and hair cells, and harm the DNA and RNA of surviving cells. A direct quantitative relationship exists between the degree of the neutropenia that develops after exposure to radiation and the increased risk of developing systemic infection (sepsis). Headache, fatigue, and weakness are also seen with mild exposure.[7] Moderate (2–3.5 Sv of radiation) exposure is associated with nausea and vomiting beginning within 12–24 hours after exposure.[7] In addition to the symptoms of mild exposure, fever, hair loss, infections, bloody vomit and stools, and poor wound healing are seen with moderate exposure. Nausea and vomiting occur in less than 1 hour after exposure to severe (3.5–5.5 Sv) doses of radiation, followed by diarrhea and high fever in addition to the symptoms of lower levels of exposure. Very severe (5.5–8 Sv of radiation[citation needed]) exposure is followed by the onset of nausea and vomiting in less than 30 minutes followed by the appearance of dizziness, disorientation, and low blood pressure in addition to the symptoms of lower levels of exposure. Severe exposure is fatal about 50% of the time. Severe sepsis is the cause of death in most cases. See criticality accident for a number of incidents in which humans have been accidentally exposed to such levels of radiation.

Longer term exposure to radiation, at doses less than that which produces serious radiation sickness, can induce cancer as cell-cycle genes are mutated. The probability cancer will develop is a function of radiation dose. In radiation-induced cancer the disease, the speed at which the condition advances, the prognosis, the degree of pain, and every other feature of the disease are not functions of the radiation dose to which the person is exposed.

Since tumors grow by abnormally rapid cell division, the ability of radiation to disturb cell division is also used to treat cancer (seeradiotherapy), and low levels of ionizing radiation have been claimed to lower one’s risk of cancer (see hormesis).

Organisms causing sepsis

The systemic infections can be endogenous originating from the oral and gastrointestinal bacterial flora, and exogenous originating from a breached skin and environment following trauma.

The organisms causing endogenous infections are generally Gram negative bacilli such as Enterobacteriacae (i.e. Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Proteus spp.), Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterococcus spp. (of gastrointestinal origin) and Streptococcus spp. (of oral cavity source).

Exposure to higher doses of radiation is often associated with anaerobic infections due to Gram negative bacilli and gram positive cocci. Fungal infections can also emerge in those who fail antimicrobials and are still febrile for over 7-10 days.

Exogenous infections can be caused by organisms that colonize the skin such as Staphylococcus aureus or Streptococcus spp. and organisms that are acquired from the environment such as Pseudomonas spp.


%d bloggers like this: