200,000 Cancers Likely from Fukushima Explosion.Video/Official Report on Reactor.

Follow the Link for official report on Japan Nuclear Accident.

© Copyright 2010, Fairewinds Associates, Inc, All Rights Reserved


The Health Outcome of the Fukushima Catastrophe Initial Analysis from Risk Model of the European Committee on Radiation Risk ECRR By: Chris Busby.

Given that the ICRP predicted excess cancers will probably appear in the next10 years, they will not be measurable above the normal rate unless they are rarecancers. Examples are leukaemia in children or thyroid cancer.The ECRR absolute risk method cannot be formally used unless we know theindividual radionuclide exposures. However it can be used if we approximate that 1/3of the dose is internal and that 1/3 of the internal dose carries a weighting of 300(which was the overall weighting factor obtained form the weapons test falloutspectrum of radionuclides epidemiology). Then the annual internal dose is 5.6mSvand 1/3 of this is 1.9mSv which we weight at 300. The total ECRR dose is thus575mSvECRR. The collective dose is then 3,338,900 x 575 x 10
to give 1,919,867person Sieverts and a lifetime (50 year) cancer yield of 191,986 extra cancersassuming the ECRR risk factor of 0.1 per Sievert ECRR. Given the different timeframes, these numbers obtained from the Tondel et al 2004 regression and the ECRRabsolute model based on the atmospheric test cancer yields in Wales and England arein reasonable agreement.The three predictions are given in Table 5
Table 5
. The predicted cancer increases in the 100km zone near the Fukushima site
Model Cancer yield Note, assumptions
ICRP 2838 In 50 years, based on collective doses atexposure of 2
Sv/h for one yearECRR Tondel 103,329 In ten years following the catastrophe, based onsurface contamination onlyECRR absolute 191,986 In 50 years, based on collective doses atexposure of 2
Sv/h for one year; probably halfof these expressed in the first ten years.
Cancer excess in 200km annulus population
The methods employed above may be extended to the 200km annulus if thecontamination levels are known. Presently no data is available of contamination inthese areas although dose rates are available. NOAA Computer modelling carried outby us and published on the internet (www.llrc.org) and elsewhere suggest that theplumes from the catastrophe have travelled south over the highly populated areasshown in Fig4. Dose rates have been published for these areas and from these doserates it can be assumed that significant exposures have occurred. From Table 4 andFig 3 we can assume that the exposures are of the order of 1
Sv/h with associatedcontamination levels. Therefore the methods employed for the 100km area may beextended to the 200km area. The population is, however much greater at 7,874,600.The results


(HigginsBlog) – Despite countless reassurances that no harmful levels of radiation from the Japan nuclear fallout would hit the US from the EPA, the University of Berkley in California is now reporting that rainwater in San Francisco water has now been detected at levels 18,100%  above federal drinking water standards.

Again, with just about all other news of the radiation hitting the US, the news is once again reported to the public over a week after it was first detected.

For background information see:



JapanRadioactive Water, Threatens U.S. Tuna-Live Video.

Alpha Decay of Americium-241 to Neptunium-237. Adapted from Alpha Decay.



Beta Decay

Alpha Decay of Hydrogen-3 to Helium-3. Adapted from Stability of Nuclei.


    • Although a dose of just 25 rems causes some detectable changes in blood, doses to near 100 rems usually have no immediate harmful effects. Doses above 100 rems cause the first signs of radiation sickness including:

      Doses of 300 rems or more cause temporary hair loss, but also more significant internal harm, including damage to nerve cells and the cells that line the digestive tract. Severe loss of white blood cells, which are the body’s main defense against infection, makes radiation victims highly vulnerable to disease. Radiation also reduces production of blood platelets, which aid blood clotting, so victims of radiation sickness are also vulnerable to hemorrhaging. Half of all people exposed to 450 rems die, and doses of 800 rems or more are always fatal. Besides the symptoms mentioned above, these people also suffer from fever and diarrhea. As of yet, there is no effective treatment–so death occurs within two to fourteen days.

      In time, for survivors, diseases such as leukemia (cancer of the blood), lung cancer, thyroid cancer, breast cancer, and cancers of other organs can appear due to the radiation received

      .Effects of Radiation Exposure on Human Health

  • http://library.thinkquest.org/3471/radiation_effects_body.html

First food ban issued in Japan nuke crisis.Radiation and Food Safety.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan placed an indefinite ban on spinach and another local vegetable produced by Fukushima and neighboring prefectures Monday after samples were found to be abnormally radioactive. He also suspended Fukushima milk.

The food ban, the first since the nuclear crisis began, is certain to alarm a public already anxious about radioactive fallout from the troubled reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 power plant.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano appealed for calm after the announcement.

“What I want people to understand is that the amount of (contamination) will not pose a risk to public health even though the figure exceeded government standards,” Edano said.



The announcement Saturday that radiation has popped up in milk and spinach made in areas near the Fukushima No. 1 power plant has cast a shadow over food safety.

The milk, collected Thursday in the town of Kawamata, Fukushima Prefecture, contained 1,510 becquerels of iodine per kilogram, about five times the new standard.

If one were to drink the contaminated milk for an entire year, the accumulated radiation would equal that of one CT scan, based on the average amount of milk consumed by a Japanese, Edano said.

The spinach, from Ibaraki Prefecture, contained 15,020 becquerels of iodine, about seven times the standard, but only 524 becquerels of cesium, or just slightly higher than the standard of 500 becquerels per kilogram.

According to the government, eating the contaminated spinach every day would be the same as absorbing one-fifth of the radiation from a CT scan.

Michikuni Shimo, visiting professor at Fujita Health University, said people should not worry about the radiation detected in the foods. Although it is better to wash vegetables before eating them, there is no immediate need to stop consuming these foods, Shimo said.

“The most troubling thing to me is the fear that’s out of proportion to the risk,” Dr. Henry Duval Royal, a radiologist at Washington University Medical School, told the Associated Press.



It is possible to cover vegetables, fruit and animal feed with plastic sheets or tarpaulins, according to the FDA. Livestock can be moved into barns.

How much radioactive material is permitted in foods?

The World Health Organization has established limits that serve as guidelines for governments. But there are no hard and fast rules in the United States, said George H. Pauli, a retired food safety official who spent 29 years at the FDA.

“You don’t want people to slide up to the limit,” he said. “It’s treated on a case-by-case basis when there’s a problem.”

Radioactive material in food is measured in becquerels, or Bq. The limit for iodine-131 is 55 Bq per kilogram for infant food and 300 Bq per kilogram for other foods regulated by the FDA. For meat and poultry, which are regulated by the Department of Agriculture, the limit is 55 Bq per kilogram. The limit for cesium-134 and cesium-137 for all foods is 370 Bq per kilogram.

In Japan, some milk was reported to contain 1,510 Bq of iodine-131 per kilogram.





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