Lost $3.79 Trillion in Illicit Financial Outflow- China.

The illicit making of money by a Class called Politicians are bleeding the Countries, irrespective of the Systems they follow.

China”Wen Jiabao’s familyand ,Bo Xilai have been caught and been disgraced.

The implications of this is brought out by Global Financial integrity in its latest report.

Bon voyage, billions! The wealth of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s family includes lucrative cross-border investment.AP Photo/Andy Wong

‘ The bulk of its estimate, 86.2%, comes from alleged trade mispricing, as Chinese exporters massage reported sales figures with help from their foreign partners to hide profits abroad. But there are many ways for funds to find their way overseas, from art to gambling. Over the last six years, GFI believes some $596 billion in Chinese funds have been moved to tax havens.

While GFI’s estimates are large, it’s clear this is a very real phenomenon: A more conservative figure for outflows from a Standard Chartered bank economist relying only on public data suggests that at least $71 billion left China just this past summer. Another recent estimate suggests some $225 billion left in the year leading up to September 2012(http://qz.com)

Mispricing.

Mispricing China.

 

Global Financial Integrity (GFI), an American research group that campaigns against illicit financial flows, believes this mis-invoicing is rampant. In a new study Dev Kar and Sarah Freitas of GFI compared China’s reported exports to the world with the world’s stated imports from China. They also juxtaposed China’s purchases from the world, with the world’s exports to China. In principle the figures should match. But the two economists found huge discrepancies between them (see chart). If, as Mr Kar and Ms Freitas recommend, China’s trade with Hong Kong and Macau is excluded, the country appears to have understated its exports and overstated its imports by a combined $430 billion in 2011.

These estimates are hard to take at face value. They imply that China’s true current-account surplus (which includes its trade surplus plus one or two other things) was almost 20% of GDP at its peak in 2007 (officially it was about 10%). But even if the figures are illustrative, rather than definitive, they highlight the difficulty of curbing the cross-border flow of capital in a country with such a heavy cross-border flow of goods.”(economist.com).

Here is the Report fro GFI.

Click the Link.

http://www.gfintegrity.org/storage/gfip/documents/reports/ChinaOct2012/gfi-china-oct2012-report-web.pdf

 

New Tienanmen situation in China

Deng Xiaoping (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I  had provided information on China‘s emerging unrest and the subsequent crack down on comments on the internet by blocking of the Microblogging service providers.

Additional information is seeping in which I am providing here below.

Refers to:

For the Diplomat, Minxin Pei argues that the CCP Standing Committee should be very concerned about an “intellectual reawakening” which is increasingly resonating with the Chinese public and may be creating the conditions for another pro=democracy movement:

Of course, one is unlikely to find the discussion of such sensitive issues in most official publications (although some media outlets affiliated with official publications have been particularly adventurous in carrying articles on these topics in the past few months). The range of issues is wide and diverse. Despite disagreement among participants in this incipient post-1989 Chinese intellectual renaissance, the discussion is fast converging on three critical issues. First, there appears to be a widely shared consensus among China’s thinking class that the country’s economic reform is either dead or mired in stagnation. Second, those who believe that economic reform is dead or stuck argue that only political reform, specifically the kind that reduces the power of the state and makes the government accountable to its people, will resuscitate economic reform (some advocate for more radical, democratizing changes, although the consensus on this particular point has yet to emerge). Third, the status quo, which can be characterized as a sclerotic authoritarian crony-capitalist order, isn’t sustainable and, without a fundamental shift in direction, a crisis is inevitable.

Such signs of an intellectual awakening are worth noting for many reasons. Its timing is certainly significant. Many people would connect this development with China’s pending leadership transition. In China, as in most other countries, pending changes in leadership usually stimulate discussions among the intelligentsia about the future of the country and the accomplishments or failures of the departing leadership. Chinese intellectuals, mostly liberals, may want to seize this once-in-a-decade opportunity to reignite a debate on whether the existing political system serves the country’s long-term needs of economic development, social justice, and national unity.

Another, perhaps more important reason, is that more than two decades after the Tiananmen crackdown (and after Deng Xiaoping famously admonished his colleagues there should be “no arguing,” essentially ending the ideological debate among the ruling elites over whether post-Mao China was embracing capitalism), members of China’s thinking class have come to realize that the post-Tiananmen consensus, which might be characterized as giving economic reform and development a chance to solve China’s political problems (one-party rule and poor governance), has basically broken down. In other words, the post-Tiananmen model, all but intellectually bankrupt, provides no useful guidance in the coming decades

http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/04/signs-of-a-new-tiananmen-in-china/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+chinadigitaltimes%2FbKzO+%28China+Digital+Times+%28CDT%29%29

Venture capitalist, frequent English language op-ed writer and rising public intellectual Eric X. Li warns us that a constant focus on the sacking of Bo Xilai is distracting from a much more menacing problem – China’s widening ideological division. From the South China Morning Post via Huff Post:

[...S]peculating about Bo’s downfall or future is less productive than understanding the two ideological forces that form the political context in which the Bo incident could be at risk of becoming a perfect storm. So far, neither has gained dominance. But if one of them should occupy the center stage of Chinese politics, the consequences for China and the world would be disastrous.

Two extreme ideological forces have been dismayed by China’s tremendous achievements since Deng Xiaoping launched his reform. On one side are the leftists who believe China has lost its socialist way in its head-long pursuit of market economics and want the nation to go back to its past of a completely state-owned economy and dogmatic Leninist rule. On the other side are the liberals who just cannot live with the fact that China is succeeding without multi-party elections and a Bill of Rights. The noises they are amplifying seem, at the moment, to be deflecting our attention from the extraordinary progress China has gained in the last three decades and the underlying consensus that made it possible[...]

http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/04/eric-x-li-on-chinas-ideological-rift/

Related articles

• Will China Experience a Military Coup? (socyberty.com)

Left wing ‘Military Coup in China?

Since Monaday there have been reports of a Military coup in China by Ultra Left.

This has been reported fuelled by enhanced security in the Leaders’ Compound.

Coup in China?

“Over the night of March 19 and early morning of March 20, Bejing local time, a message about a large number of military police showing up in Beijing spread widely across microblogs in mainland China.

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UPDATE 4: Zhou Yongkang Lost Power Struggle, Say Chinese Netizens(Mar. 22)

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The key figures in the action are said to be: Hu Jintao, the head of the CCP; Wen Jiabao, the premier; Zhou Yongkang, who has control of the People’s Republic of China’s police forces; and Bo Xilai, who was dismissed from his post as head of the Chongqing City Communist Party on March 15 by Wen Jiabao, after a scandal involving Bo’s former police chief.

UPDATE 3: Bo Xilai Fired, Epoch Times Website Unblocked Behind GFW

UPDATE 2: Bo Xilai Placed Under House Arrest, Reports Suggest

Li Delin, who is on the editorial board of Securities Market Weekly and lives in Dongcheng District of Beijing, wrote on his microblog a report that confirmed unusual troop movements: “There are numerous army vehicles, Changan Street is continuously being controlled. There are many plainclothes police in every intersection, and some intersections even had iron fences set up.”

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Click this tag to read The Epoch Times’ collection of articles on the Chinese Regime in Crisis. Intra-CCP politics are a challenge to make sense of, even for veteran China watchers. Here we attempt to provide readers with the necessary context to understand the situation.

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According to the message that went viral on China’s Internet, a military force with unknown designation quickly occupied many important places in Zhongnanhai, the Chinese leadership compound in Beijing, and Beijing in the early morning of March 20, with the cooperation of Beijing armed police.

The troops entered Beijing to “get and protect Bo Xilai,” according to the message.

UPDATE 1: Words Related to ‘Coup’ in Beijing Censored on Weibo

A mainland Chinese reader has told The Epoch Times that a military coup has taken place in Beijing.

It is still unknown who, if anyone, has been arrested.

The message claims Zhou Yongkang first used armed police force in an attempt to arrest Hu and Wen. However, Hu and Wen had been prepared and Zhou’s coup was subdued, though rumors of Hu and Wen being arrested had been spread earlier.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/coup-in-beijing-says-chinese-internet-rumor-mill-207993.html

 

“

Western media has extensively covered the political turmoil: Bloomberg reported on howcoup rumors helped spark a jump in credit-default swaps for Chinese government bonds; the Wall Street Journal opinion page called Chinese leadership transitions an “invitation, sooner or later, for tanks in the streets.” The Financial Times saw the removal of Bo, combined with Premier Wen Jiabao’s strident remarks at a press conference hours before Bo’s removal as a sign the party was moving to liberalize its stance on the Tiananmen square protests of 1989. That Bo staged a coup is extremely unlikely, but until more information comes to light, we can only speculate on what happened.

…

Mainland media sites have begun to strongly censor discussion of Bo Xilai and entirely unsubstantiated rumors of gunfire in downtown Beijing (an extremely rare occurance inBeijing). Chinese websites hosted overseas, free from censorship, offer a host of unsupported, un-provable commentary on what might have happened in the halls of power. Bannedbook.org, which provides free downloads of “illegal” Chinese books, posted a long explanation of tremors in the palace of Zhongnanhai, sourced to a “person with access to high level information in Beijing,” of a power struggle between President Hu Jintao, who controls the military, and Zhou, who controls China’s formidable domestic security apparatus. The Epoch Times, a news site affiliated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement (which banned in China), has published extensively in English and Chinese about the coup.

http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/03/coup-chatter-wakes-the-great-firewall/

“

China flexes muscle,India watches.

Both China and India have their own perspectives and visions about their countries.China wants to strengthes its geopolitical presence in Asia by bridging ties with Pakistan, Myanmar,South Korea,Hongkong, Malaysia,Singapore,Indonesia etc, t0  register its presence to ward off US influence.

As China perceives India,rightly so,as US’s ally it is taking care to keep India out of balance by keeping it engaged with Pakistan,by openly supporting Pakistan as well as Myanmar;Srilanka ,playing the Tamil card(Tamils constitute a State in India).

It is also increasing its infrastructural projects in Pakistan occupied Kashmir,Myanmar,Sri Lanka and surface transport in Tibet as well

It is not a comforting thought to have India as a Security Council permanent member, as it perceives India to be closer to US,UK,France and Russia.

India, on the other hand, has to tackle Pakistan , Sri Lanka Myanmar,Nepal and Bangladesh in the immediate vicinity, apart from improving relations with Indonesia, Malaysia and the countries in Asia , including Japan and S.Korea.

Hence their visions do not match.

I sense the status quo shall continue and it may not escalate into a skirmish-basically posturing and sparring.

The exception to the cheery mood was the mid-December visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China. Mr. Wen did secure business deals, announce new trade goals and offer reassurances of friendly Chinese intentions. But the trip also underscored that many points of tension between the Asian giants — trade imbalances, their disputed border and the status of Kashmir — are growing worse. And the Indian foreign policy establishment, once reluctant to challenge China, is taking a harder line.

“The Wen visit has widened the gap publicly between India and China,” said Ranjit Gupta, a retired Indian diplomat and one of many vocal analysts pushing a more hawkish line toward China. “And it represents for the first time a greater realism in the Indian establishment’s approach to China.”

India aspires to membership on the United Nations Security Council, and China is now the only permanent member nation that has not explicitly endorsed such a move. But what has rattled Indian leaders even more is their contention that China is being deliberately provocative in Kashmir as it grows closer to Pakistan, China’s longtime ally and India’s nemesis. China has also been expanding its diplomatic and economic influence around South Asia, stepping up its involvement in the affairs of Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives.

Mr. Wen’s visit was supposed to help address those tensions at a time when India is starting to draw closer to the United States. Among Chinese leaders, Mr. Wen is perceived as a friend of India, and his 2005 visit was regarded as a breakthrough after he and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed on a broad framework to address the border dispute.

……

Meanwhile, China infuriated India by starting to issue special stapled paper visas — rather than the standard visa — for anyone in Indian-controlled Kashmir traveling to China on the grounds that Kashmir is a disputed territory. China later objected to including a top Indian general responsible for Kashmir in a military exchange in China. In response, Indian officials angrily suspended all military exchanges between the countries. Indian officials had thought Mr. Wen might reverse the stapled visas policy on his trip, but he instead only called for more diplomatic consultations.

Indian commentators have noticed that articles in the Chinese state-run media have renewed Chinese claims that the disputed border between the nations is roughly 1,240 miles in length — even as India puts the length at about 2,175 miles. The difference roughly represents the border between Indian-controlled Kashmir and Tibetan China. By omitting this section, the Chinese are questioning the status of Indian-controlled Kashmir, a position that buttresses Pakistan’s own claims, several Indian analysts have argued.

The most visible evidence that these problems were deepening came in the joint communiqué issued by the two nations at the end of Mr. Wen’s visit. China typically demands that nations voice support for the one-China policy, which holds that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. In past communiqués, India has agreed to such language, but this time it was omitted, a clear sign of Indian irritation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/world/asia/30india.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha22